Lekwena Radar North-West University
NWU-WRF forecast

Forecasts

Our own forecast for the next three days, updated twice a day.

Official warnings

Weather overview

Impact dashboards

Agri forecast

Maize Trust Early Warning for Farmers project.

Forecast maps

Zoom in and play through the next three days, for all of South Africa or a closer look at North West and Gauteng.

Want the atmosphere above a town? See the soundings.

About the forecast model

An in-house WRF-ARW 4.8.0 configuration, run twice a day from the 00Z and 12Z NCEP GFS cycles, 72 h ahead. It is a research forecast: only the SA Weather Service issues official warnings. Model documentation is kept by the WRF user community; custom forecasts on request from Dr Henno Havenga.

Domains

DomainResolutionGridExtentCoverage
d02
Outer domain
9 km214 x 20014.7-36.1E, 20.5-36.9S South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini
Forced directly from GFS at the lateral boundary; cumulus parameterised
d03
Convection-permitting nest
3 km246 x 15621.9-29.4E, 23.6-27.9S North West and Gauteng
Cumulus scheme off - convection resolved explicitly

Configuration

Dynamical coreWRF-ARW v4.8.0, non-hydrostatic
Map projectionLambert Conformal (true latitudes -23.7 and -34.0)
MicrophysicsThompson (mp_physics = 6)
CumulusKain-Fritsch on d02, off on d03
Longwave radiationRRTMG (ra_lw_physics = 3)
Shortwave radiationRRTMG (ra_sw_physics = 3)
Planetary boundary layerYSU (bl_pbl_physics = 1)
Surface layerRevised MM5 Monin-Obukhov (sf_sfclay_physics = 1)
Land surfaceUnified Noah LSM (sf_surface_physics = 2), 4 soil layers
Initial and boundary conditionsNCEP GFS 0.25 deg, 3-hourly
Forecast length72 h
CyclesTwice daily, from the 00Z and 12Z GFS cycles

Good to know

  • Initialised from public GFS analyses, so GFS starting errors carry into the forecast.
  • Discard the first hour of each run for spin-up.
  • Verify against observed profiles in the University of Wyoming upper-air database.

Full forecast portal ↗ · Plain images without the zoomable map: forecast fields, SCEP, SAWS warnings list.