Lekwena Radar North-West University
Forecast

NWU-WRF

A three-domain operational WRF-ARW forecast, run in house every day.

  • 4.8.0WRF-ARW version
  • 3 kmFinest nest
  • 72 hForecast length
  • 18ZDaily GFS cycle

An operational WRF-ARW configuration run in house each day and co-located with the Lekwena radar and the NWU station network for verification. Model documentation is maintained by the WRF user community.

Open the full WRF portal

Synoptic overview

Surface analysis with the two upper-air levels that drive it, on the Southern Africa domain. Stepped three-hourly from T+12 h to T+72 h.

Official warnings

Issued by the South African Weather Service.

Impact dashboards

Model output scored per location against storm, heat, frost, fire and agricultural decision thresholds.

Gridded fields

Each field is published at both resolutions. The 3 km nest resolves convection explicitly and is the better guide to thunderstorm timing, placement and mode over the Highveld.

  • Simulated Radar

    Model-simulated radar reflectivity.

    9 km 3 km

  • Accumulated Precipitation

    Precipitation accumulated from model initialisation.

    9 km 3 km

  • Simulated CAPE

    Convective available potential energy.

    9 km 3 km

  • Level of Free Convection

    Height at which a lifted parcel becomes positively buoyant.

    9 km 3 km

  • Hail Forecast

    Maximum predicted hailstone diameter at the surface.

    9 km 3 km

  • Maximum Wind Gust

    Peak surface gust in each output interval.

    9 km 3 km

  • Temperature

    Screen-level (2 m) air temperature.

    9 km 3 km

  • Heat Index

    Apparent temperature from dry-bulb temperature and humidity.

    9 km 3 km

  • Cloud Fraction

    Total column cloud cover.

    9 km 3 km

  • Potential Evapotranspiration

    Atmospheric evaporative demand.

    9 km 3 km

Vertical profiles for 48 locations are on the soundings page.

Model domains

DomainResolutionGridExtentCoverage
d01
Outer domain
18 km 279 x 219 0.4-49.6E, 5.4-40.3S Southern Africa
Lateral boundary forcing only - not published as gridded fields
d02
Regional domain
9 km 214 x 200 15.9-34.8E, 21.2-36.5S South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini
Cumulus parameterised
d03
Convection-permitting nest
3 km 246 x 156 22.0-29.2E, 24.1-28.2S North West and Gauteng
Cumulus scheme off - convection resolved explicitly

The domains are two-way nested. The outer domain supplies lateral boundary conditions only; its gridded fields are not published.

Configuration

Dynamical coreWRF-ARW v4.8.0, non-hydrostatic
MicrophysicsThompson (mp_physics = 6)
CumulusKain-Fritsch on d01/d02, off on d03
Longwave radiationRRTMG (ra_lw_physics = 3)
Shortwave radiationRRTMG (ra_sw_physics = 3)
Planetary boundary layerYSU (bl_pbl_physics = 1)
Surface layerRevised MM5 Monin-Obukhov (sf_sfclay_physics = 1)
Land surfaceUnified Noah LSM (sf_surface_physics = 2), 4 soil layers
Initial and boundary conditionsNCEP GFS 0.25 deg, 3-hourly
Forecast length72 h
CycleDaily, from the 18Z GFS cycle

Practical limits